<- Click on the Logo to go to the Home Page
Experimental Atmospheric Forecasting System for Indochina and The Philippines
Our forecasting system has been applied to astronomy. Check it out here.
Our newest publication can be found here.
Our forecasting system is based on our publication that can be found here.
Click Region Name Above to See Forecasts
Tropical Activity Ramps Up Over Southeast Asia
Amid Persisting ENSO-Neutral Conditions in Mid-2025
Click Here to See Forecasts (times in UTC; Local Time = UTC + 7 for Indochina)
HPC Status: DOWN.
Website Status: the Indochina and Philippine weather, gas and particle pollutant animations are NOT updated.
ENSO Neutral Conditions Prevailed in April with Neutral Conditions Most Likely in May to October 2025
July 17, 2025 – The latest multi-model ensemble forecast from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) shows that ENSO-neutral conditions prevailed in June and are still the most probable outcome through October 2025. However, there is an increasing spread in model outputs beginning in August, with many members now leaning toward negative sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific.
This trend indicates a potential shift toward La Niña-like conditions later in the year, particularly between October and December, although there is still notable uncertainty. The NINO3 sea surface temperature anomaly forecast shows most models clustering just below zero, with some ensemble members projecting anomalies reaching -1.5°C or lower—values typically associated with weak to moderate La Niña events.
If La Niña does develop, it may lead to:
-
Enhanced monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia and northern Australia
-
Suppressed rainfall in parts of the eastern Pacific, including western South America
-
Increased tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific basin
These developments come just as Southeast Asia is experiencing heavy monsoon rains and tropical disturbance activity, suggesting a climate system already primed for increased variability.
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service (ECMWF), July 2025 ENSO Outlook
Tropical Depression Crising (09W) to Intensify Regional Rains Across Southeast Asia in July 2025
July 17, 2025 — Satellite and hurricane tracker imagery from Windy.com reveal that Tropical Depression Crising (international designation: 09W) is on track to intensify as it moves westward from Luzon, Philippines, toward Vietnam, with indirect impacts already being felt across much of Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and southern China.
The storm system is forecast to strengthen to 58 knots (~107 km/h) by Monday, July 21, as it moves into the Gulf of Tonkin. Despite its modest wind speeds, Crising is already enhancing the southwest monsoon, resulting in widespread heavy rainfall and thunderstorms throughout the region. Thailand, in particular, is experiencing renewed rainfall in Bangkok and northern provinces due to this moisture surge.
This pattern aligns with recent years’ trends of monsoon variability, though the 2025 storm track appears to be bringing enhanced convection deeper inland across Indochina, a pattern more consistent with El Niño–neutral or La Niña-like conditions.
Crising's projected path (shown as a brown forecast cone on satellite) suggests continued rainfall into next week for:
-
Northern Vietnam and Laos
-
Northern and central Thailand
-
Possibly southern Yunnan, China
The system is also enhancing low-level wind convergence across the Sulu Sea and northern Borneo, feeding thunderstorm activity into Brunei, Sarawak, and parts of eastern Malaysia.
Meteorological agencies urge residents to monitor updates as flooding, landslides, and travel disruptions are possible—even in areas far from the storm center—due to amplified monsoonal flow.
ASIA-AQ Aircraft Campaign: A Success!
April 11, 2024 - The ASIA-AQ aircraft campaign has concluded and was successful to take measurements of air pollution over the Philippines from February 1-14, over South Korea from February 15 - March 12, and over Thailand from March 13-26, as well over Taiwan (during transits).
​
Thailand summary at (in Thai and English): https://youtu.be/RabP4vJwve0?feature=shared
More details can be found on: https://espo.nasa.gov/asia-aq/content/ASIA-AQ